VietNamNet Bridge – The stock market would attract more investors in 2013,
while the real estate market would still be in its hibernation, according to Dr.
Dinh The Hien, an economist, when considering possible investment channels in
The real estate market still cools
The real estate market in 2012 did not recover as expected by investors, while
it bogged down further in the crisis. High inventories and weak liquidity have
been hindering the recovery of the market. Since late 2011, apartment and land
prices have been decreasing continuously. Especially, high end apartment prices
have dropped dramatically by 50 percent.
Real estate developers now think of pouring money into medium class projects and
the housing projects for the poor, believing that this is the only way out for
them. However, it’s still too early to say that the solution would rescue them.
The real estate market would be gloomy at least until the end of the second
quarter of 2013, because commercial banks, while hurrying to collect debts,
would put real estate products on sale, which would keep the real estate prices
at low levels because of the profuse supply.
The demand would appear in the third quarter of the year, when the national
economy begins recovering and the bank loans interest rates reach the deepest
low. Meanwhile, the market strong recovery would be seen in late 2013.
The stock market
2012 was the toughest year for the stock market. However, the investment channel
still could bring the profit of 16.8 percent in 2012, which was 40 percent
higher than the profits made from bank deposits. The high profitability may help
lure more investors to the market.
The expected economic recovery in 2013 would help make the stock market prosper.
Once foreign investors believe in Vietnam’s capability of recovering the
economy, they would pour money into Vietnamese stocks.
The stock price increases are expected to be seen in the second quarter of the
year, which would make the VN Index exceed the threshold of 450 points in the
third quarter of 2013.
The gold market
There would be up-and-down waves in 2013 following the recovery of the US
economy and the dollar performance. However, the big gap between the domestic
and foreign prices would bring disadvantages to domestic investors. Therefore,
domestic investors should keep cautious with the investment channel.
This is always a profitable and safe investment channel. Depositing idle money
at banks would be the choice of the most of people who prefer safe investment
deals in the context of the current national economy with high risks.
The current dong interest rates of 9 percent for less-than-12 month term
deposits and 10 percent per annum for longer term deposits are considered
“acceptable” to investors.
However, the interest rates are expected to go down in the second or third
quarter of 2013. Therefore, it would be better to deposit money for one year or
more to enjoy higher interest rates.
As for dollar deposits, the current interest rate is 2 percent per annum at
maximum. The dong/dollar exchange rate is believed to be stabilized in the first
half of 2013 thanks to the high foreign currency reserves, the slow imports
increase, the profuse dollar supply thanks to the high volume of overseas
remittance and foreign direct investment capital.
However, it is very likely that the State Bank may consider depreciating the
dong by the end of the first quarter of the year in order to help boost export
and attract new investment capital.