At least 90 percent of local banks believe that inflation will stay in
the single-digits this year, according to a survey conducted by the
State Bank of Vietnam (SBV).
Nearly 70 percent of
banks predicted that the savings and lending interest rates would go
down by about 2 percent, the SBV’s Monetary Statistics and Forecasting
Department said.
The survey also indicated that the
price adjustment managed by the State would present the biggest risk to
inflation control this year, followed by the change in monetary and
financial policies.
Participants forecast that the average inter-bank exchange rate between the USD and VND would rise by 1-3 percent.
Although the macro-economic situation remains weak, 90 percent of
banks are still confident in the country’s business outlook.
Half predicted the economic situation would improve this year and most
expect pre-tax profits to increase, although they do not see gains
rising above 20 percent.
Most banks predicted credit growth would also improve compared to 2012, with gains between 10-20 percent.
Capital mobilisation is expected to grow in line with banks’ credit
growth. However, capital mobilisation in VND would be much higher than
that of foreign currencies.
Banks are also expected
to continue allotting capital to prioritised sectors such as agriculture
and rural development, export and support industries in order to spur
the country’s economic growth.
While many banks
still take a cautious view of both the country’s economic condition and
their business results in 2013, they have found reasons to believe the
situation will improve. Many expressed hope that the central bank would
continue to cut interest rates, strictly handle any violations of the
ceiling interest rate and create a healthy climate for currency trading
performance.-VNA