Vietnam’s gross domestic product (GDP) is forecast to edge up this
year and next, with inflation in the high single digits, said a report
issued by the Asian Development Bank (ADB).
At an
April 9 press briefing to announce the ADB Report on Asian Development
Outlook 2013, Dominic Mellor, an economic expert from the bank, said
Vietnam’s GDP growth is forecast at 5.2 percent in 2013, picking up to
5.6 percent in 2014 if progress is made in strengthening the banking
sector and recovery in major industrial economies gathers momentum in
2014.
Inflation is seen easing to 7.5 percent on
average this year before quickening to 8.2 percent in 2014, he said,
adding this view assumes reasonable weather for food production, a
broadly stable dong exchange rate, and restrained policy stimulation.
He noted that the trade surplus is expected to climb to a record 12.5
billion USD in 2013 and the current account surplus to increase further
this year before easing in 2014 as imports accelerate in tandem with GDP
growth.
According to Dominic Mellor, despite
challenges, Vietnam has remained an attractive investment
destination in light of its growing working-age population and low
labour costs. This is illustrated by an increase in FDI over the past
decade.
Nevertheless, he noted, the country faces increased competition for FDI in Southeast Asia, particularly from Indonesia.
Vietnam’s ability to remain competitive and drive economic growth
back up to 7-8 percent will depend in large part on the timely and
decisive implementation of structural reforms to the baking and SOE
sectors and the improvement of other aspects of the business
environment, he said.
According to ADB Country
Director in Vietnam Tomoyuki Kimura, Vietnam’s GDP growth ebbed to 5.0
percent in 2012, the lowest in 13 years.
Subdued
economic growth prompted an easing of monetary policy last year, but
lending was constrained by problems in the banks, he said.
He affirmed that sustaining foreign direct investment inflows and
maintaining competitiveness requires intensified efforts to reform
banking, state-owned enterprises and the business environment.-VNA