VietNamNet Bridge – Economists, while keeping doubtful about the statistics
reported by state management agencies, have warned that if they try to
“fabricate” the figures, the regulators would not know how sick the economy is
to prescribe properly.
Bui Trinh, a well-known economist, at the recently held spring economic forum,
mentioned the formula for calculating GDP based on the total consumption plus
the investments and exports, and minus imports.
With the formula, the found GDP in the first quarter of 2013 was 4.89 percent.
However, the figure is unconvincing in the eyes of economists. While the
outstanding loans increased inconsiderably by 0.03 percent, but the state
economic sector’s investment increased sharply by 11 percent. The unreasonable
thing can be seen in the contrast between the low credit growth rate and the
strong capital inflow to businesses.
“Where did the businesses, which have been relying on banks’ capital, find the
capital if banks did not disburse?” he questioned.
The state management agencies announced that the export turnover increased by
19.7 percent, and that the growth rate would have been up to 25 percent if the
price decrease had not been counted on. This meant that the export price
decreased by 5 percent in reality.
Meanwhile, the consumer price index (CPI) in Q1 2013 has been reported by the
General Statistics Office as increasing by 6.9 percent in comparison with the
same period of the last year.
This can be understood that while the export price decreased by 5 percent, the
domestic price increased by 6.9 percent, an unreasonable thing.
“Should we follow the export-orienting economic development strategy, if we have
to sell products cheaply to the world, but sell high to domestic consumers?”
Trinh questioned.
Le Dang Doanh, former Head of the Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM),
also a well-known economist, said he cannot understand why the modest credit
growth rate of less than 1 percent could lead to the GDP growth rate of 5
percent.
Meanwhile, in previous years, the 6 percent GDP growth rate was obtained when
the credit growth rate reached 30 percent.
“Is it true that Vietnam’s economy does not need credit to develop?” Doanh
doubted.
Doanh has also raised a question about the unemployment rate in 2012, which was
the deepest low over the last many years.
In 2011 and 2012, it was estimated that 100,000 businesses shut down amid the
economic recession, a figure which was by far higher than that in the years
before. However, the unemployment rate was abnormally low at 2.2 percent.
A report showed that 15,000 more businesses got dissolved in the first quarter
of 2013. So where have the workers of the dissolved businesses gone, if noting
that bankruptcies outnumber the new startups.
Analysts have noted that the actual number of enterprises suspending their
operation of getting dissolved is much higher than the reported figure.
The enterprises might be the big debtors, who don’t want to make public about
their dissolution to escape from the creditors. Others decided to keep silent
because they were busy collecting debts from others. Meanwhile, there has been
no official report about the businesses.
Dr. Tran Dinh Thien, Director of the Vietnam Economics Institute, also said that
the statistics released by different agencies are surprisingly different. The
GDP growth rate of the whole country, in some cases, was just equal to 2/3 of
the figure reported by local authorities.
VNE