VietNamNet Bridge – In Vietnam, productivity growth in the rail transport
sector is the lowest among the transport modes.
Minister of Transport Dinh La Thang in mid March 2013 confirmed the decision to
cancel the project on the $56 billion high speed rail because the project raised
a lot of controversy.
The rail was believed to be too costly, while it would only allow to carry
passengers, not cargoes.
A question has been raised that how the railways development would be
programmed, when the high speed railway has been canceled.
The productivity growth rate in the railway transport is the lowest among the
transport modes. According to the General Statistics Office, in 1995-2011, the
volume of cargoes carried by railway increased by 60.2 percent, while the land
transport witnessed the sharp increase of 627 percent, waterways 317 percent,
maritime transport 785 percent and airways 522 percent.
The same situation occurred with the number of passengers served.
To date, cargoes have been carried mostly by land and by sea. While the national
economy’s scale has increased from $27 billion in 1995 to $123 billion in 2011,
the market share of the railways has decreased from 3.21 percent to 0.81
percent.
Meanwhile, it is a growing tendency in the world that more and more countries
try to expand the railway network for commercial purpose, especially in the
developing countries whose growth relies on exports.
China is one of the countries. The volume of goods carried by the railways in
the country in 1995-2010 increased by 5.4 percent with the third largest railway
network in the world (91,000 kilometers in length). The railways have been
undertaking the carrying of heavy goods, especially coal.
A recent report by the World Bank showed that it is most economical to carry
goods for the distance of between 500 kilometers and 5,000 kilometers. It would
be better to carry goods by land for the distance of less than 500 kilometers,
while maritime or airways would be suitable for the distance of over 5,000
kilometers.
However, things would still depend on the geographical conditions of every
country. A report of ESCAP showed that the minimum distance for railways to show
their efficiency in Vietnam is 500 kilometers. Meanwhile, the figures are 1,600
and 80 kilometers in Russia and China, respectively.
Experts have found out that the geographical conditions in Vietnam are
completely suitable to apply the principle. The average distance among
provinces, economic zones is over 500 kilometers. The HCM City – Khanh Hoa
province – Da Nang City – Vinh City and Hanoi, is an example. This means that
railways would bring the highest economic effectiveness if compared with other
transport modes.
In fact, the Ministry of Transport has been well aware of the importance of the
railways. The railways development program by 2020 showed that heavier
investment would be made in the sector with the projects aiming to expand the
networks and improve the train speed.
According to Dr. Tran Dinh Ba from the Vietnam Economics Association, instead of
building a new high speed rail, it would be better to set up a new rail next to
the existing one. The upgrading of the railways, according to Ba, is completely
within the reach of the state management agencies.
Ba went on to say that once the railways are upgraded, the maximum speed could
reach 150-200 kilometers per hour instead of 50 kilometers per hour as
currently.
NCDT