Shares lack momentum, fluctuations to continue
HA NOI (VNS)— Shares in Ha Noi fell last week but HCM City stocks saw gains thanks to the upcoming establishment of the Viet Nam Asset Management Corporation (AMC).
“Although the establishment of the corporation will not immediately have good effects on the economy, it is one of the big steps in the process of settling bad debts and this can create a boost for investor psychology in the short term,” said PetroVietnam Securities Co analyst Dao Hong Duong.
However, he said, investors should base short-term trading on changes of cash flows in the market instead of the expectation that the stock market would rebound thanks to the establishment of AMC.
AMC is planned to be deployed next month, capable of handling about 50 per cent of the banking system’s bad debts – or VND100 trillion (US$4.7 billion).
Meanwhile, other macro-economic data look good. The nation’s consumer price index in March fell by 0.21 per cent from the previous month; Gross domestic product in Ha Noi during the first quarter of this year reached VND23.18 trillion ($1.1 billion), up 7.5 per cent compared to the same period last year.
In addition, rating agency Fitch forecast Viet Nam’s GDP growth this year would slightly improve to 5.5-6 per cent.
On the HCM City Stock Exchange, despite ups and downs throughout the week, the VN-Index managed to add 1.79 per cent over the previous Friday’s close to 489.99 points. While the total trading value rose slightly to VND4.7 trillion ($223.8 million), the combined volume during five sessions decreased by 14.1 per cent.
Although the index was helped by such majors as Masan (MSN), Vinamilk (VNM) and property developer Vingroup (VIC), liquidity was not high.
On the Ha Noi Stock Exchange, the HNX-Index lost 1.8 per cent compared to the previous week, reaching 60.93 points. Trading dropped around 32 per cent to average VND286.8 billion ($13.6 million) and 36.2 million shares per session.
Foreign investors largely reduced their net buying. In the portfolios of two major exchange-traded funds: Market Vectors Vietnam and FTSE Vietnam Index, the proportion of Vietnamese shares declined. Both funds stopped being net buyers last week.
However, within only the first quarter, foreign investors have poured around $152 million into the Vietnamese stock market, higher than last year’s total.
Several positive movements on some large-cap stocks had actual impacts on the VN-Index, which also led to the difference with the HNX-Index. However, with declining cash flows and foreign investors’ transactions, the market lacked the momentum to overcome the oscillation state.
“Technically, the market will not decline significantly, but the fluctuation may continue,” Duong said.
He also advised investors to reduce speculation stocks and give priority to stocks in the investment of exchange-traded funds or those getting the attention of foreign investors.
During the first four sessions last week, securities firms with self-trading operations accelerated their net buying value to more than 3.6 million units, equivalent to VND138.2 billion ($6.5 million).
Net buying activities were mainly carried out on Thursday, focusing on blue chips, prices averaging nearly VND43,000 ($2).
This might have roots in the expectation that large-cap stocks would rally, pushing the HCM City market to exceed the resistance of 490 points. — VNS